新西兰统计局6月18日发布，受疫情影响，2020年3月季度的国内生产总值（GDP）下降了1.6％，为29年来最大降幅。
本季度的国内生产总值统计结果显示，随着旅行限制的实行以及封城限制，经济活动普遍下降。
下降具体体现：
- 自1991年3月季度下降2.4％以来最大的季度下降。
- 封城使得该季度的6天(4个工作日)非必要商业活动关闭，占季度总天数的7%
- 与国际旅行有关的行业，如住宿和交通运输于边境3月19日关闭后活动大大减少
- 对服务业的重创是经济活动下降的最大原因，几乎占GDP总下降的一半，其中招待业（住宿，饭店和酒吧）是受影响最严重的行业之一，下跌7.8％
- 建筑业下降了4.1％
- 运输，邮政和仓储业下降了5.2％
- 家庭消费支出下降0.3％，其中耐用消费品（比如汽车等）支出下降，快速消费品（比如面粉卫生纸等）支出增加，两者相抵消
- 新西兰在2020年3月季度的经济活动下降了1.6％，而澳大利亚下降了0.3％。同期，加拿大下降2.1％，日本下降0.6％，英国下降2.0％，美国下降1.3％。
- 截至2020年3月的年度GDP年增长率降至1.5％，而截至2019年3月的年度GDP增长率为3.1％。自2016年12月以来的3.9％，GDP的年均增速总体放缓。
（以上为简译，仅供参考，具体内容请见原文）
英文原文
COVID-19 contributes to 1.6 percent fall in March quarter GDP
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.6 percent in the March 2020 quarter, the largest drop in 29 years, as the initial effects of COVID-19 restrictions impacted on economic activity, Stats NZ said today.
This quarter’s GDP results showed a widespread drop in economic activity as travel restrictions took hold and the country moved towards lockdown. COVID-19 effects came on top of the smaller impact from drought in some parts of the country.
“The 1.6 percent fall surpassed quarterly falls during the global financial crisis in the late 2000s,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said.
“It is the largest quarterly fall since the 2.4 percent decline in the March 1991 quarter.”
In the March 2020 quarter, the alert level 4 lockdown saw non-essential businesses close, affecting six days (four weekdays) or about 7 percent of the quarter.
“Industries related to international travel, such as accommodation and transport, began to feel the effects of COVID-19 earlier in the quarter, with activity dropping significantly once the borders closed on 19 March,” Mr Pascoe said.
Service industries contributed the most to the drop in activity, making up almost half of the overall fall in GDP. The hospitality industry (accommodation, restaurants, and bars) was among the most affected industries, falling 7.8 percent, as tourism fell after the border was closed to slow the spread of COVID-19.
The construction industry fell 4.1 percent and the transport, postal, and warehousing industry fell 5.2 percent. These falls reflected the impact of lockdown measures as building sites shut down and non-essential workers were told to stay home. Parts of the transport industry, such as air transport, were also affected by the restrictions on travel.
Household consumption expenditure fell 0.3 percent. Spending fell on long-lasting products (durables) such as motor vehicles. A fall in services, driven by accommodation, international and domestic air passenger services, and recreational services, reflects the drop-off in travel as the pandemic spread. Households were not able to buy non-essential goods and services as such businesses shut down. A strong increase in spending on short life-cycle goods offset these falls, as households prepared for the lockdown by buying supplies, from flour to toilet paper. The different results for consumption of durable and non-durable items showed the changing behaviour of consumers in response to COVID-19.
New Zealand’s 1.6 percent decline in economic activity in the March 2020 quarter compares to a 0.3 percent fall in Australia. In the same period, there was a 2.1 percent decline in Canada, a 0.6 percent decline in Japan, a 2.0 percent decline in the United Kingdom, and a 1.3 percent decline in the United States.
Annual GDP growth for the year ended March 2020 dropped to 1.5 percent, compared with a 3.1 percent growth in the year ended March 2019. Annual growth in GDP has been generally slowing since December 2016 when it was 3.9 percent.
Measuring the economy
The data sources that are available on a timely basis determine the methods used to compile Stats NZ’s estimates of quarterly GDP. The unprecedented nature of the rapid economic shock caused by the COVID-19 lockdown has meant that some data sources and methods have had difficulty measuring COVID-19 related effects.
Stats NZ has reviewed all data sources and methods and, using supplementary data sources, has compared and confronted them. Doing this has helped Stats NZ understand the level of activity in the quarter and apply informed adjustments where they were needed.
